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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: April 24th, 2024

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  • Had some recently met friends of friends, and friends I’d known longer, over for a small get together.

    One of the friends of friends decided not to leave.

    Fucked up me and my apartment real bad, injured me so bad I lost my job, lost my phone, lost my computer, got evicted, lost all my other belongings, pent a year homeless, got my wallet stolen many times, further beat up by fentanyl addicts on the streets.

    I am recovering slowly, but I have to do all my own PT, as I can barely walk, don’t have a car, couldn’t afford the proper PT anyway as half my disposable income is going toward paying off debt from my stolen credit cards that the credit bureaus refuse to remove from my record.

    PTSD is something I now have but is the least of my concerns, Im more worried with re learning how to walk, as my torn muscles attempt to heal around my broken bones.



  • I genuinely wish I had better advice, but if climate experts explaining, for 20+ years, how fucked we will be if we do not drastically change has achieved negligibly effective results, I am not going to be able to come up with anything that will actually fix the problem.

    I am disabled. I live off of SSDI. Fixed income.

    If Trump cancels that, I’m dead.

    If not, my plan is to try to move to Minnesota.

    Low fire risk, relatively low flooding risk, lots of access to water, at least for now its a blue state, and it is the least expensive blue state to live in (that isn’t the desert of New Mexico).

    Also has a decent range of assistance for poors like me, a rental rebate program… but who knows what’ll happen if Trump just cancels all the federal funding for all that.

    Has a lower required common income to rent ratio, 2.5x compared to 3x in most of the rest of the non climate disaster zone parts of the US.

    If I can give any useful individual advice it would be to form a mutual aid network with your friends and family, and go check out some predicted climate danger maps, move somewhere that’s low on that but also affordable, learn how to cook from raw ingredients, learn how to mend and maintain things like appliances, vehicles, clothes, etc.

    All my friends and family were QAnon MAGAtards, or hysterical, irresponsible, backstabbing hypocrites, or both, so I’m SoL on the ‘have a support network’ front, but I can at least move somewhere better for me.



  • Short answer (imo, beyond the scope of anything I cited in other posts):

    Not much, not enough to meaningfully change any of the lines, no.

    If we’d (as in the entire world) started doing that 20 years ago such that those massive and transformative processes would be complete now, it may have smoothed out those curves a bit.

    Now? Starting now? Sorry, too expensive.

    Why do you think the billionaires bought up all the farmland starting 5+ years ago?

    They saw this coming.

    Why do you think we are only building new houses in climate disaster zones now?

    Because construction labor, material and land prices are too high anywhere that is remotely climate safe, and you can only make a profit if you make luxury housing.

    … What we would need right now is a complete and total overthrow of worldwide capitalism.

    Instead, we’re all turning fascist as dumb stupid idiots tend to when confused and scared.


  • You forsee high unemployment around 2040?

    Who are you?

    What model are you using?

    … Here’s the actual paper I am showing images from, I’m willing to bet its just a little bit more advanced and comprehensive than the IS LM graph from your first macro econ class in college.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442

    We are not talking about natural declines in human population growth being the single change, where we hold everything else ceterus paribus and then go from there.

    We are talking about a systems dynamics model with multiple factors that all affect each other simultaneously, actually based on historical empirical data, taking into account the externalities and caveats and complications that are so often glossed over by pop econ, the stuff you don’t get to until you get a masters or phd.

    We are talking about a complex systems collapse that indicates mass die off from famines, food prices hitting the stratosphere, increasing climate disruption.

    Maintaining a system in a steady, no growth state actually does become more expensive and labor intensive after less and less farmers can afford fertilizer, the farmland keeps burning down or flooding, less and less logistics can afford gas prices, unmaintained basic infrastructure falls apart, that kinda stuff.

    Have you seen this?

    https://actuaries.org.uk/document-library/thought-leadership/thought-leadership-campaigns/climate-papers/planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature/

    Somewhere around 25% less world GDP than now in 2070 from climate change destroying everything.

    Not 25% less world GDP growth, 25% lower absolute world GDP.

    This is coming from the UK’s most credible association of actuaries, the folks that actually do all the complicated, summated math from the micro level up, that most economists just hand wave attempt to explain from the macro level down.

    EDIT: Take a look at that first graph I posted and note how one of the axes labels is Non Renewable Natural Resources

    The entire infinite growth paradigm of most mainstream economics is untethered to reality, often handwaved away with ‘oh technology will just make everything better, everything more efficient’.

    Everything crashes when its not cost effective to extract the resources the system requires to function, then parts of the system just start shutting down.


  • At a very big picture scale, we’ve hit the point where the macro level benefit of extracting resources to drive economic and human population growth is less than the cost of such extraction and its associated pollution and other externalized costs, and the cost of providing the now very large population its standard of living.

    It is now too costly to even maintain the real economy and real living standards as they are, thus everything becomes more expensive, more and more people fall into poverty, famines occur from food shortages/price hikes, more and more are killed or uprooted or financially devastated from more frequent and severe natural disasters.

    Thats the latest update to the World 3 model, from ‘The Limits to Growth’, originally done by MIT back in the 1960s.

    Recalibration23 is the latest revision.

    Main difference is the old ‘pollution’ metric was just replaced with co2 level, which is much easier to measure accurately.

    This is why everything is obscenely financialized.

    Overwhelming financialization is a very good historical indicator that a civilization level collapse is about to occur, and it also coincides with an absurd wealth disparity, as financialization necessarily cannibalizes the remaining real economy, concentrates wealth, and makes the investment done by the smaller and smaller oligarch class less and less profitable and rational, chasing insane schemes and blowing up bubbles.

    Here’s standard of living:

    In 2050, average human standard of living will be roughly where it was in the Great Depression / WW2.

    And about a billion people will have died, largely from famine/overbearing food costs, and natural disasters, intensified by global warming.


  • Most people’s relationship with any given corporate / algorithm driven social media platform is akin to a drug addict.

    Start viewing people who can’t imagine quitting cold turkey as drug addicts, and it makes a lot more sense.

    This is what happens when corpos have oodles and oodles from data on how to drive ‘engagement’… and then they do that, via algorithmic content feeds and dark patterns and other kinds of manipulation.

    These people are addicted to convenience, to the dopamine hits, to the rage bait, to their validating echo chambers.

    They don’t care that it makes them stupid, misinformed, angry, takes all their time, ruins their attention span, makes them feel like ugly failures amidst a sea of beautiful, rich influencers.

    If you can’t stop ‘voluntarily’ doing something that’s bad for you without a giant fuss, without needing a guided intervention, you’re an addict.





  • Please outline your political/electoral strategy to accomplish this.

    You would basically have to pass a constitutional ammendment if you wanted this to not just immediately be overturned by the next administration.

    That means you need either:

    2/3rds of the State Houses and Senates to call for a Constitutional Convention.

    or

    2/3rds of the Federal House and Senate to do the same.

    … and then your new amendment(s) have to be approved by 3/4th of the State Houses and Senates.

    https://www.thoughtco.com/how-to-amend-the-constitution-3368310

    Unless you have a plan to somehow get a supermajority of support from a supermajority of States, this is magical thinking and will never happen.

    My generation, Millenials, tried but ultimately failed to overhaul first past the post voting to break the two party duopoly death grip, and rework the Presidential Electoral College into a popular vote.

    Probably both of those are prerequisites for a durable Presidential max age.