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Cake day: August 14th, 2024

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  • The thing is, Canada has been moving to slow down reliance on US trade for some time now. Y’all remember a pipeline that was supposed to be built but didn’t? Yeah, Canada still remembers that. The US has, in general, become a less reliable trade partner since early 2000s and Canada has been working on the exits for some time now.

    In 2023, Canada had a 19.1% contraction of energy products to the United States. That’s about $40B CAD they took a pass on. Trump wasn’t in office then. This, which should be unsurprising to anyone, has been a thing that’s been going on for much longer than Trump. Same deal with Mexico and for that matter the entire world.

    South America, the US used to be an absolute juggernaut there in 1999. Today, we’re barely on par with China’s imports into South America in only five countries in South America. The other countries in South America are mostly dominated by Chinese imports. In just twenty-five years we’ve had a massive erosion of trade into South America, that no four year President is going to fix.

    The thing is, there’s a clear trend that the United States is going to be in a very different position 75 years from now, than it was in 75 years ago. World War II was a one time deal and the effects of it are slowly ebbing away, that’s just expected.

    Now yes, there’s going to be leaders like Trump who throw tantrums along the way. Some of those are just for show. Like this recent one. I hear Republicans talk like “Mexico CAVED!!” And the reality is they just agreed to the exact same terms and conditions they agreed to back in 2019. This was always what was going to happen, but Trump being Trump he makes a show of it.

    USMCA is due up for new terms next year. Pretty sure this whole fit Trump is throwing is going to be assuaged by “agreeing” to terms to the new USMCA that Canada was always going to agree to. Again, the vast majority of this is just show and both Canada and Mexico know to play along till they’ve hit the exit fully.

    And like the deal being talked here in this article. This whole thing started back in March of last year. And this whole process goes further back. This isn’t some backroom deal Canada signed with Ecuador to say “fuck America”, but main stream media will act like it was. Because it’s fun to keep the poors frothy and eyes off the 1% fleecing us.

    The overall trend is from now to 2100, the United States will become more normalized on the international trading markets. It will cease having it’s ridiculous outsized position it’s enjoyed since days of when most of Europe was razed by one crazy guy Elon adores. There’s going to be some who bemoan that fact of life, some who might outright reject it altogether, but eventually it’ll be as immutable as the sun setting in the west (till the Professor from Planet Express causes us to start rotating the other way).

    We in the United States are likely to have more tantrums happen, like the one we are seeing, as we continue. That’s just what some are bound to do as we continue down that road of time. And they’re likely going to put on pageantries while they do it. Again this recent Mexico/Canada spat from Trump is a great example of doing the usual dog and pony show Trump is known for.




  • Distrowatch doesn’t research anything and cries foul without second thought because Meta is evil

    But it’s not Distrowatch’s job to verify an opaque censorship process. Meta is the one who created their filters and their filters are not open for public review. So it is entirely incumbent for Meta to handle the matter.

    Distrowatch is correct to cry foul because that’s literally all they can do. It’s not like they can suggest a patch on github or something.

    We have to remember that black box logic is wholly owned by the author of the logic. If it ain’t working, then yeah, cry foul, there’s no additional research to be done. That’s literally the entire point of obfuscating logic in a service, to ensure that nobody else can review the internals.

    Meta was completely in the wrong. Distrowatch called them out on their fuckery. That is exactly how the system is supposed to work when a company blackboxes their shit.

    Facebook support (person making around $3.5 per month in some third world country) doesn’t know difference between specific Linux distro and Linux itself, tells Distrowatch that Linux is now banned

    Very likely. Run a shit company, get shit results. Distrowatch running with “Linux is now banned on Facebook” is not a result of lack of research, it’s the result of a company that just gave up on giving a fuck.

    Our standards for companies have really fucking eroded over time and boy oh boy do CEOs eat that shit up. Meta has a systemic failure on-going in their company to which the C-Staff do NOT care one bit about. This episode is a manifestation of those failures. Meta has to up their fucking game here.

    This notion that Distrowatch should have… That’s like saying someone who cut their mouth on glass in their McDonald’s burger is to blame for not first checking their burger for glass. The glass shouldn’t fucking be there in the first place. Customers have a reasonable expectation that a company isn’t a dumpster fire and it isn’t incumbent on the customers to ensure they aren’t stepping into a goddamn disaster zone.

    I just really need people to understand, we have got to upper our expectations of companies. Because every time we let something like “oh well Distrowatch should have known they were talking to a complete moron”, we are letting these asshats who are currently enriching themselves on the United State’s taxpayer’s dime, get away with it.

    Meta was fucking up badly and Distrowatch was letting everyone know in medias res how Meta was fucking up. This is 100% Meta fucked up. Don’t want $3.50/mo employees giving shit answers? Likely a good way for Meta to solve that is to NOT have fucking $3.50/month employees. It’s a pretty clear strategy for them to consider. Till then, they’re likely going to be handing out bullshit answers that contain no sense of logic and we ought to fucking call them out on it.

    We live in everyone is dumb timeline

    I’m not going to have this, “well people should have known better.” We ought not excuse Meta for this monumental fuck up. This is theirs to own. Everyone cannot randomly research every line of bullshit that’s pandered off by companies. There is just no time for that non-sense. If Distrowatch says “Meta told us Linux is banned” and provides the email to back it up, then until Meta says otherwise, that should be taken as the gospel of the company. If Meta thinks that it shouldn’t have gone the way it went, then Meta needs to fix their fucking hiring policies.

    WE HAVE GOT TO STOP EXCUSING THESE PEOPLE. They are NOT going to act better if we give them even a single centimeter.

    I get what you are saying, but this isn’t Distrowatch’s thing to reevaluate how stories hit the front page. Meta fucked up every step of the way. And for a company that’s pulling down a seven digit multiple value to what Distrowatch pulls in a year. Meta can fucking figure it out because they have access to a ten million fold more resources.

    That’s just my two cents on this explanation.


  • I will also quickly cancel the student visas of all Hamas sympathizers on college campuses, which have been infested with radicalism like never before.

    Wow, nothing says freedom of speech like telling folks to not expect it if they become a citizen. Like typically you put on your best on for guest, but I guess the United States is now at the “get the fuck out” stage of encouraging young engineers to the country.

    …Except if you’re willing to be subjected to a work visa.

    I mean it’s honestly telling everyone who we really are here. We don’t want you unless you’re willing to be a wage slave. I mean President is free to do that, but damn that’s really sending a message there.


  • this means deepseek is based on an openai model?

    It doesn’t sound like it is. It sounds more like it’s hallucinating which DeepSeeks has a really light end fine-tuning. But who knows? While their stuff is Open Source, no one has yet to test it and see if they can reproduce the results DeepSeek got. For all we know this is just a Chinese con or the real deal. But not knowing how you landed into this point of the conversation it comes off as a context aware hallucination.

    It knows about openai and it being a LLM but it’s mixed up self identity in specific with identity in general. That is it is start to confuse LLMs and ChatGPT as meaning the same thing and then trying to wire back this bad assumption to make sense again.

    Again, who really knows at this point? It’s too new and it being in China, there’s likely no way to verify these people’s claims until someone can take what they’ve published and made a similar LLM.


  • Copenhagen-hosted DistroWatch says it has tried to appeal against the Community Standards-triggered ban. However, they say that a Facebook representative said that Linux topics would remain on the cybersecurity filter.

    Nope, this one isn’t ignorance, it’s actual malice. They fully intended to start blocking Linux topics.

    When you take this and pair it with what Larry Ellison just recently said:

    AI will ensure “citizens will be on their best behavior”

    There tends to be a pattern forming that I really don’t want to draw because I like tinfoil on my head.


  • So is the rout based on the idea that the need for training hardware is much smaller than suspected even if the operation cost is the same… or is the stock market just clueless and dumb and they’re all running on vibes at all times anyway?

    Two parts here.

    1. nVidia is over valued, everyone has known this but nobody wanted to call. Someone clicking a decent model on a fraction the resources was good as anyone to call the bluff.
    2. Lots of the folks who are in it for nVidia believe that companies are going to need chips out the ass to keep up. It’s getting ahead of everyone to say “that’s no longer true”, but for reasons there’s a good chance the chip expectation isn’t as big as nVidia was painting.

    As for the model.

    This model is from China and trained there. They have an embargo on the best chips, they can’t get them. So they aren’t supposed to have the resources to produce what we’re seeing with DeepSeek, and yet, here we are. So either someone has slipped them a shipment that’s a big no-no OR we take it at face value here that they’ve found a way to optimize training.

    The neat thing about science is reproducibility. So given the paper DeepSeek wrote and the open source nature of this. Someone should be able to sit down and reproduce this in about two month (ish). If they can, nVidia is going to have a completely terrible time and the US is going to have to rethink the whole AI embargo.

    Without deep diving into this model and what it spouts, the skinny is that nVidia has their top tier AI GPUs. It has all these parts cut into the silicon that makes creating a model cost a lot less in kilowatts of power. DeepSeek says they were able to put in some optimizations that gets you a model on low kilowatts by optimizing some of the parts found only in the top tier AI GPUs.

    Blah blah example of this DeepSeek used 32 of the 132 streaming multiprocessors on their Hopper GPUs to act as a hardware accelerated communication manager and scheduler. Top tier nVidia cards for big farms do this in their hardware already in a circuit called the DPU. Basically DeepSeek found a way to use their Hopper GPUs to do the same function as nVidia’s DPUs.

    If true, it means that the hardware nVidia is popping into their top tier isn’t strictly required. It’s nice, and you’ll still get a model on less kilowatts than the tricks DeepSeek is using, but DeepSeek’s tricks means the price difference between top tier and low tier needs to be a lot closer than it is to stay competitive. As it stands with DeepSeek’s tricks (again, if they prove to be correct) is that if you’ve got a little extra time, you can get bottom tier AI GPUs and spend about the same kilowatts for what the top tier will kick out with a hint less kilowatts. The difference in cost of kilowatts between the amount you spend on low tier and amount you spend on kilowatts on top tier isn’t enough to justify the top tier’s price difference from the low tier, if time is not a factor.

    And so that brings us full circle here. If someone is able to reproduce DeepSeek’s gains, nVidia’s top tier GPUs are way over priced and their bottom tier is going to sell out like hotcakes. That’s bad for nVidia if they were hoping to, IDK, make ridiculous profit. And that is why the sudden spook in the market. I mean, don’t get me wrong, folks have been looking forward to popping nVidia’s bubble, so they’ve absolutely been hyping this whole thing up a lot more. And it didn’t help that it came top #1 on the Apple App Store.

    So some of this is those people riding the hate nVidia train. But some of it is also, well this is interesting if true. I think it’s a little early to start victory laps around nVidia’s grave. The optimizations purposed by DeepSeek have yet to be verified as accurate. And things are absolutely going to get interesting no matter the outcome. Because if the purposed optimizations don’t actually produce the kind of model DeepSeek has, where did they get it from? How did they cheat? Because then that’s an interesting question in of itself, because they aren’t supposed to have hardware that would allow them to make this. Which could mean a few top tier cards are leaking into China’s hands.

    But if it all does prove true, well, he he he, nVidia shorts are going to be eating mighty well.



  • Exactly. What the banks are doing are selling “loans”. Musk has to pay those loans back quote/unquote someday. If the loan is good, you hold on to it as a bank because the interest makes you money. If the loan is bad, you sell it so that you can get some of your money back and make the collection of the loan someone else’s problem.

    Banks will do this for a number of reasons:

    • To manage their balance sheet. Every loan not paid in full is bad and you need to balance good (income/good loans/etc) and bad.
    • Generate immediate liquidity. Banks need to have some hard cash on hand, sometimes they sell to do just that, have hard cash.
    • Free up credit lines to lend to new borrowers. Banks only have so much resources, sometime you cut losses to get new gains.
    • Diversify the risk pool. You want a nice balance between “loans that might default” and “loans likely to not default”.

    Now for everyone else, what the parent to this comment is indicating is the second option in that list. Having to create some cold hard cash suddenly. Usually, there’s a cyclical nature to needing greenbacks by the fistful, but like everything that’s not always true. Something can “happen” and you have a sudden need to have cash in hand pronto. Good way to get that cash is to start selling low hanging fruit if you have it.

    Something like the Twitter loan is a good pitch for low hanging fruit. Musk is terrible at paying the loan back, Twitter is likely to default one day, but Musk suddenly has direct access to some pretty corrupt as fuck ways to actually pay that loan back. From what I’ve read in the article, the sell price is something like 90 to 95 cents on the dollar. So not a huge discount, this ain’t a fire sale.

    But banks might want to offload Musk from their sheets just in case that money is something someone might later investigate. Like that 95 cents on the dollar price is “We think Musk is good for it, but we likely don’t actually want his money.” So you can make that federal investigation in 2033 someone else’s problem, by selling the loan today. The big bank makes about 95% of the original amount back and when Musk goes to pay his loan in Russian Blood Rubles, it’ll be to a bank that get investigated that isn’t <<insert some large bank that would “NEVER” think to take conflicted money>>.

    That’s one theory. But there could be something on the horizon. Something that isn’t right around the corner, but coming up in the distance that the banks want to have cash on hand for. Usually you see a much larger discount, like 60 cents on the dollar, for “holy shit, this stuff is toxic but we need to offload it discreetly before everyone else wises up.”

    I don’t think point one and three apply to Musk’s particular set of loans. But who knows?! Only the bankers do.



  • LOL!!

    I moved somewhere, where the local government owns the majority share of the teleco that provides the Internet in the area. 30% ownership is co-op, which leaves something like 15% that’s private interest. The ISP runs amazing, 1Gbps fiber to the house for $45/mo and the co-op just forwarded a motion to the local government for consideration to upgrade to 10Gbps.

    I moved here from a place that was a Comcast monopoly zone that gave max 350Mbps for $70/mo.

    In a better society the CEOs of AT&T and Comcast would have already been dragged out into the street, long before we got to this point.



  • The postrat folk. The deep value Silicon Valley folk. Core Techbro kind of people.

    Would have thought they’d be prone to sticking with Musk

    Ditto, but at the same time. Being with daddy Musk might be too traditional at this point. No idea the reasons, but you can to see a lot of this popping up in that circle on Twitter.

    TPOT → Bluesky is actually an interesting example of what looks like a successful transplantation… quasi-existential concerns about Elon Twitter, vibes have been off leading to big cascades of migration tend to happen after inciting incidents (eg twitter banning substack links being a canary in the coal mine)

    You know the “I sound super thoughtful” kind of stuff. Lots of praise from that Group on XTwitter/Bluesky.



  • what long term storage would be the best option for storing digital information

    The biggest factor with passive storage, something that’s not refreshed. Optical media that’s made to last. M-DISC comes to mind, but there’s no proof that worse case 100 years is a valid claim. Chemically speaking, a well kept disc should keep 100 years, but that’s chemical composition in an ideal case. Nothing in manufacturing is perfect, so impurities are always going to be there robbing the lifespan of these discs.

    Magnetic tape ideally lasts decades if not close to a century, but these are tapes that are kept in incredibly controlled conditions. If you’ve ever worked in the server world you’ll know that any plain Jane LTO magnetic tape can’t be trusted after collecting dust for anywhere close to five years.

    We have scrolls, we have books, and we have stone tablets that have endured centuries, but the key in all of those is how well they were kept. The construction matters, but the bigger aspect is the environment they were kept in. For digital media, we don’t know any real way to keep digital data in a passive state for centuries because, well, we haven’t had digital data for that long. We’ve got really old punch cards that are close to that age, but even then, some of the oldest stacks are now sitting in hermetically sealed cases and are actively upkept to prevent UV damage by clear coating those cases on a regular basis.

    And that’s the thing with digital media, keeping it in an active storage rather than passive may be the key for centuries of longevity. USB sticks are fine so long as someone remembers to plug them in and allow them to refresh every some many years. Most USB sticks use ceramic capacitors, so leakage there isn’t too much an issue. The bigger thing might be corrosion of the various traces and pins, but if well kept, that might take decades to eventually make an impact.

    Sometimes, I like to parallel digital long term storage as the Ship of Theseus. If you keep moving the data from one device to another, it’s still the same data. And in that sense, the data can live forever. Even if there’s a gap of say two decades, if you can still get to the data and convert it into something modern, the data lives on. It’s not the original medium, but with digital data, it doesn’t have to be, that’s the neat thing about digital data.

    I think people still are working on trying to wrap their heads around digital data versus the way we used to do it. You know, someone might have the family bible and we’ve got to keep it nice and tidy and careful with it, because with analog data the medium and the information are one in the same. And I think sometimes people look at family digital photo collections like that. Like it’s the family bible and that we’ve got to keep it safe. But if it’s a USB stick that you pull out every so often, look over it, and call it day. Maybe move the photos from the Walmart USB stick that you got in 2016 to the new 800TB USB-F stick you just got from neo-Amazon in 2073, those photos can live forever. You don’t have to be careful with them anymore.

    I think that’s one of the reasons that open formats matter so much. If you stored all your family videos in Windows Media Format, what happens when Microsoft dies in the Second US Civil War of 2038? That’s not helping you in 2073 to open those files on a format you can never figure out. But say you stored it in some open format. Now all you need is an implementation of that format and a compiler. And poof, now you have a modern codec to read the files of the before times.

    It’s one of those fun maybe slightly existential kinds of things. Nothing lasts, no matter how hard we try, nothing will last. All things forgotten decay, we can only slow that decay down, but we can’t prevent it. But things that live, things that pass through the hands of the living, those things endure because there are people who put time, one of the most precious resources we have, into them. Our reward for that investment of time is something that continues beyond the decay.

    I like to think of it as the balance of the universe. You get to keep this, but only if you give a bit of time to pay for keeping it. And sometimes it’s crazy to think of how much that applies to. Also I likely shouldn’t reply after having a few drinks. Wooooo!!

    Environment makes all the difference for passive storage, sorry I really went out there on the reply.


  • Best bet is long term optical discs or long term magnetic tape. USB keys are not good for long term storage. USB keys use NAND memory that is a series of floating gate metal oxide semiconductors (FGMOS). These operate by using Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, in where a charge is carried along a regular style fin field-effect transistor (FINFET) and a charge above the transistor’s channel causes some electrons to quantum tunnel into floating gates that are isolated by oxides.

    While these floating gates are sealed off from everything, so the charge should stay “indefinitely”, quantum effects cause some of the electrons to “leak” out of the floating gate, causing a degradation of the stored signal. Typically there’s a refresh circuit within the USB key’s integrated circuit that takes care of that and USB data can last seemingly forever. However, that refresh circuit requires a small amount of power, which if you store the USB stick somewhere for years on end, will never get powered.

    This is the reason why flash memory only assures data can be retained for about ten years without power. Eventually the electrons “trapped” in floating gate have enough time to tunnel out of the floating gate completely obliterating the signal. The tunnel events aren’t many per second, but give enough time, and all of those events add up. Paired with the whole thing that USB sticks mostly no longer use binary logic levels. Most are now using something like four or eight logic levels. So instead of there just being on and off, there is 0V-0.7V = 00, 1V-1.7V = 01, 2V-2.7V = 10, 3V-3.7V = 11 logic levels. So a small amount of charge loss can create a different bit pattern.

    One thing to look at for long term storage is something like M-DISC. The matter by which the burned data onto the optical media is made is via a process that takes about 10,000 years (estimated) to break down. However, the disc itself is in a polycarbonate thermoplastic that has an average breakdown of only about 1,000 years in extremely dry environments and about a tenth of that in your average sealed lock box environments.

    Your average spinning disk hard drive can store information for some time, but the storage requirements are pretty intense and even then hard drives loose about 1% of the magnetic strength per year without power. And about 70 years is the max before the various magnetic bits that form the low level format of the disk have degraded without power to the point that the disk has too many bad sectors to be called usable. But outside of that, the biggest fault is mechanical failure. No matter how well you think you’ve stored a drive, it’s never good enough and the spinny bits always fail from becoming too fragile from pervasive oxidation. Basically the drive will spin up only to tear itself apart as some weaken part of the armature flies into the spinning platters.

    But USB sticks will only give you about a decade before the stored information fades away into the quantum ether.