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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: January 3rd, 2024

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  • “High yield savings account” is a specific product you can ask for at your credit union (or bank, if you’re a sucker).

    A high yield savings account carries rules about how often you can move money in and out of it, but is still FDIC insured (in the US).

    FDIC insurance means that if the market completely crashes and your credit union shuts down, the Federal Reserve prints new money to replace your deposits, your money is returned to you out of previously paid insurance deposits up to like $250,000.00.

    It is widely believed to carry much lower risk, and so pays much lower interest, than average stock market performance of an index fund.

    But if giving up 3% means sleeping well at night, it can be the best call. Everyone’s situation is different.

    Edit: and high yield savings accounts historically perform much better than the average confused/frightened active investor who only buys during high markets and always sells during low markets.


  • If you don’t have the nerve to hold a stock for 30 years through ups, downs, crashes and rebuilds, there’s a thing called a high yield savings account that may better fit your current stage of life better and risk tolerance.

    And let’s all point to the sign:

    “Only invest money that you don’t need right now, and could afford to lose.”

    If Trump’s antics can make you sell, you should sell right now and not buy back in, because that’s money you should not have invested in the first place - by your own standards for peace of mind.

    President Trump is far from the first or the last powerful person to wield massive global power that negatively affects the markets. Markets perform with strong returnsin spite of bullshit from world leaders, not because any world leaders are particularly competent (with some very rare exceptions).

    It is scary right now. It really is. But that’s what investing is about. We risk some money we don’t need right now, in hope of some growth later. Pulling out when things are going down is statistically a guarantee to lock in losses. But peaceful sleep at night beats 2%-20% growth.

    To answer your question: absolutely. Stocks are going to spend four or more years underperforming where they could have under better leadership. As they have done before, and as they will do again. That’s pretty much been true with every president during my lifetime, though, and through most of recorded history. Hindsight is 20/20, and all that. And anyway, democracies don’t, so far, tend to elect economists.


  • it can’t be realistically programmed to say “I can’t do this” because its limitations are so poorly defined?

    Yep!

    There are responsible teams building LLM AIs that do program their LLM to say “I can’t do this”. But they are playing “bop-a-mole”. They see a bad output, they write new code to catch and replace it. But there’s always a new innovative bad output hiding in the depths of the learning model waiting for the input that sets it free.

    So only really old LLMs that have had millions of users using them daily for 30+ years without issues should really be trusted. (And there are - currently - no useful LLMs that meet this criteria.)

    The other intrinsic problem is that LLMs are primarily trained against the writings of self-declared experts, and have no concept of sharing a confidence level through writing tone.

    This means that an LLM uses an equally authoritative writing style when regurgitating things it has trained on millions of times (things commonly accepted as fact) as when regurgitating things it has only trained on once (lies, sarcasm).